Boot Camp memory

I was flipping through channels and the Military Channel had a bunch of guys marching along in formation and that triggered a memory.

When I joined the Navy I went thru boot camp at RTC San Diego. I'm not sure how the Great lakes and Orlando did it but in San Diego you were assigned to a company in a division and every division had one drill company.

I was in a drill company (913 SMCS Reddish).

Drill companies supplied the band, the color guard, the flag team, and the rifle drill team, in addition to our normal boot camp duties we performed in parades and other functions. Drill companies did the first 4 weeks side by side with the normal companies then when they were in service week we switched over to drill division and started training for all the extra stuff.

On the night you switched you marched across the base with your seabag and your garment bag to the new barracks and you want to put on a show. We did.

One of the things about san Diego that I never saw from Great lakes or Orlando alum was the heartbeat. Digging in your right heel while you march so that it made kind of a slapping boom on the concrete. 913 did that better than anyone.

That night we were marching to the new barracks our heartbeat was so loud that people were coming out of the other company barracks to see what was going on. It was awesome. The other companies were blown away. Some people were actually cheering us. We sounded like the SS marching into Nuremberg it was so loud. My company went on to become the first drill company to be the flag company for a division. Also out of all the graduations we performed in we were the only division where the staff was in dress whites and that was at the insistence of our Company Commander.

Anyway just a fals from the past.

Is today the day the DOW closes below 7000?

So far it is looking like it. (Down 90 some points at 0700)

Hope not.

Once again I am ahead of my time, but does anybody listen? NO!!!

So there I was back in June 2005 sitting in my stifling apartment sweating through my underwear eating a grape popsicle - Not really. I live in a basement apartment that stays pretty comfortable all year and I haven't had a popsicle since I was 12 or so, but I wanted to set a scene - when I in a flash of genius I wrote a post which in part lamented the fact that schools were doing away with recess. I found the idea upsetting because of studies which show that a periodic break helps people study and retain information.

Now almost 4 years later the New York Times finally backs me up.

Took long enough people!

AP Fact Checks Obama

They're not real impressed

Obama Joint Session Speech on the Economy - Live Blog

Trying my hand at the live blog thing.

6:04 - Michelle Obama Just walked in followed by the cabinet. This was supposed to start at 6:00 is it too much to ask that when you are pre-empting the Simpsons you have everyone in their seats and start the fucking speech on time.

6:06 Hillary shaking hands with the Generals. I would love to see one of them head butt her. Never mind I am just irritated about the Simpsons still.

6:10 Finally. Crap If you can't manage to start a speech on time how am I supposed to trust you to run the freakin' economy.

6:14 Still waiting

6:17 Economy is in crisis, blah blah blah. Impact is real and economy is weakened but we will rebuild. Not a bad start.

6:20 Need to pull together and take responsibility. Problems have been building but it can all be blamed on Oil, Health Care, and lack of Education. Blech.

6:22 Recovery begins with jobs. Stimulus had to be shoved thru or the world would have ended but now we have the stimulus package and all will be well. Plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs. 57 cops still on streets of Minneapolis because of plan.

6;26 Some skeptical if plan will work so I have asked Joe Biden, Super Genius, to lead an unprecedented oversight effort. all will be held accountable for spending.

6:27 Even if recovery plan works flawlessly we need to spend more money on banks.

6:28 Banks aren't lending that is leading to lost jobs. New lending fund to buy cars, houses, student loans etc. (how much is that going to cost)

6:29 Pushing the mortgage relief plan. Won't help irresponsible borrowers - believe that when I see it.

6:30 Bank executives will be held responsible for bad decisions. CEO bashing YAY!!! More regulation.

will cost more than we have set aside - read we need more money.

6:33 we will not help Wall Street but we will help small businesses. Except the credit originates on wall street mainly.

6:35 More regulation again. Can't consign nation to open ended recession. Really whats the expiration date then. Oil, Health Care, Education again.

6:37 Big government is good. Yay!!!

6:38 Oil, Health Care, education again. Seeing a theme here.

6:39 Sounding a little protectionist here.

6:40 Carbon cap. Get ready for massive price increases. Shot at the auto industry. We are going to tell you what to build.

6:42 Health care reform. leading his way up to nationalization. gonna happen this year.

6:46 Education. complete access - spend a lot more money. Schools need reform. Funny coming from a guy who helped run a program that spent $40,000,000 on Chicago schools with no results.

6:49 By 2020 America will have highest proportion of college graduates in the world. We will give you money if you volunteer. Kennedy wrote the bill YAY!!! Will he stand behind it like he did the HMOs he created or No Child Left Behind?

6:50 OMG he just said the recovery plan had no earmarks with a straight face. We have identified $2,000,000,000,000 of waste to be cut in the next decade. We will gut the military.

6:56 We are gonna tax the piss out of those evil corporations and the wealthiest 2% of Americans. Refer back to my post on the Patriot Employer act. We will give tax cuts to the people who don't pay taxes.

6:58 gonna cut and run in Iraq as soon as possible.

6:59 New strategy in Afghanistan AND Pakistan. Really Pakistan, you mean our ally where we ship the majority of our supplies thru. We are going to pick a fight with them? Increase size of the military at the same time he is gutting it.

7:00 Close GITMO. US does not torture (a cynic would say - well yeah we use the rendition program that your administration just went to court to defend)

7:02 Blah Blah Blah.

Well delivered speech but it's freakin empty. I'm not sure the markets are going to like the anti-business rhetoric.

I actually couldn't listen to the last 5 minutes. When he speaks it's like that Japanese cartoon that makes kids seize. Just painful.

Ann Althouse and Ace were liveblogging too.

How David X. Li Killed Wall Street

Back in October I posted about Credit Default Swaps and their role in bringing down the American economy.

Well meet David X. Li whose Gaussian Cupola enabled the development of credit default swaps and the collateralized debt obligations that the CDS is supposed to protect.

Here is the story as I understand it.

In 1997 investment banks were beginning to toy with the idea of pooling corporate bonds and selling off pieces. The idea behind these collaterilized debt obligations was to make investing less risky by diversifying the pool. that way if one company defaulted you didn't lose everything. Good idea right? Well then people decided to get cute.

By further splitting these pools into smaller slices of increasing risk they allowed investors to assume more risk for greater gain by buying the slice of the pool with the most risk.

In order for this to work the banks had to be able to figure out the odds of all the companies in a particular slice of the pool defaulting at once. Something called correlation.

Investment banks, in order to figure out the rates of return at which to
offer each slice of the pool, first had to estimate the likelihood that
all the companies in it would go bust at once. Their fates might be
tightly intertwined. For instance, if the companies were all in closely
related industries, such as auto-parts suppliers, they might fall like
dominoes after a catastrophic event. In that case, the riskiest slice of
the pool wouldn't offer a return much different from the conservative
slices, since anything that would sink two or three companies would
probably sink many of them. Such a pool would have a "high default
correlation."

But if a pool had a low default correlation -- a low chance of all its
companies stumbling at once -- then the price gap between the riskiest
slice and the less-risky slices would be wide.

(1)

To understand the mathematics of correlation better, consider something simple, like a kid in an elementary school: Let's call her Alice. The probability that her parents will get divorced this year is about 5 percent, the risk of her getting head lice is about 5 percent, the chance of her seeing a teacher slip on a banana peel is about 5 percent, and the likelihood of her winning the class spelling bee is about 5 percent. If investors were trading securities based on the chances of those things happening only to Alice, they would all trade at more or less the same price.

But something important happens when we start looking at two kids rather than one—not just Alice but also the girl she sits next to, Britney. If Britney's parents get divorced, what are the chances that Alice's parents will get divorced, too? Still about 5 percent: The correlation there is close to zero. But if Britney gets head lice, the chance that Alice will get head lice is much higher, about 50 percent—which means the correlation is probably up in the 0.5 range. If Britney sees a teacher slip on a banana peel, what is the chance that Alice will see it, too? Very high indeed, since they sit next to each other: It could be as much as 95 percent, which means the correlation is close to 1. And if Britney wins the class spelling bee, the chance of Alice winning it is zero, which means the correlation is negative: -1.

If investors were trading securities based on the chances of these things happening to both Alice and Britney, the prices would be all over the place, because the correlations vary so much.

(2)

That's where David X. Li and his Gaussian Cupola come in. Based off a model used in actuarial science Li's model looked at how bonds were being handled by traders and how likely they think it is that a company will default in each of the next 10 years. It does this for all the companies in a pool and plots the results together and the model comes up with a default correlation. This allows banks and traders to come to agreement on what are the riskiest slices of a bond pool and how much they should yield.

If you're an investor, you have a choice these days: You can either lend directly to borrowers or sell investors credit default swaps, insurance against those same borrowers defaulting. Either way, you get a regular income stream—interest payments or insurance payments—and either way, if the borrower defaults, you lose a lot of money. The returns on both strategies are nearly identical, but because an unlimited number of credit default swaps can be sold against each borrower, the supply of swaps isn't constrained the way the supply of bonds is, so the CDS market managed to grow extremely rapidly. Though credit default swaps were relatively new when Li's paper came out, they soon became a bigger and more liquid market than the bonds on which they were based.

When the price of a credit default swap goes up, that indicates that default risk has risen. Li's breakthrough was that instead of waiting to assemble enough historical data about actual defaults, which are rare in the real world, he used historical prices from the CDS market. It's hard to build a historical model to predict Alice's or Britney's behavior, but anybody could see whether the price of credit default swaps on Britney tended to move in the same direction as that on Alice. If it did, then there was a strong correlation between Alice's and Britney's default risks, as priced by the market. Li wrote a model that used price rather than real-world default data as a shortcut (making an implicit assumption that financial markets in general, and CDS markets in particular, can price default risk correctly).

It was a brilliant simplification of an intractable problem. And Li didn't just radically dumb down the difficulty of working out correlations; he decided not to even bother trying to map and calculate all the nearly infinite relationships between the various loans that made up a pool. What happens when the number of pool members increases or when you mix negative correlations with positive ones? Never mind all that, he said. The only thing that matters is the final correlation number—one clean, simple, all-sufficient figure that sums up everything.

(2)

It also allowed the misuse of the credit default swap through the creation of the synthetic CDO and other instruments.

Some people buy credit-default swaps even though they don't own any
bonds. They buy just because they think the swaps may rise in value.
Their value will rise if the issuer of the underlying bonds starts to
look shakier.

Say somebody wants default protection on $10 million of GM bonds. That
investor might pay $500,000 a year to someone else for a promise to
repay the bonds' face value if GM defaults. If GM later starts to look
more likely to default than before, that first investor might be able to
resell that one-year protection for $600,000, pocketing a $100,000 profit.

Just as investment banks pool bonds into CDOs and sell off riskier and
less-risky slices, banks pool batches of credit-default swaps into
synthetic CDOs and sell slices of those. Because the synthetic CDOs
don't contain any actual bonds, banks can create them without going to
the trouble of purchasing bonds. And the more synthetic CDOs they
create, the more money the banks can earn by selling and trading them.

Synthetic CDOs have made the world of corporate credit very sexy -- a
place of high risk but of high potential return with little money tied up.

Someone who invests in a synthetic CDO's riskiest slice -- agreeing to
protect the pool against its first $10 million in default losses --
might receive an immediate payment of $5 million up front, plus $500,000
a year, for taking on this risk. He would get this $5 million without
investing a dime, just for his pledge to pay in case of a default, much
like what an insurance company does. Some investors, to prove they can
pay if there is a default, might have to put up some collateral, but
even then it would be only 15% or so of the amount they're on the hook
for, or $1.5 million in this example.

This setup makes such an investment very tempting for many hedge-fund
managers. "If you're a new hedge fund starting out, selling protection
on the [riskiest] tranche and getting a huge payment up front is
certainly something that's going to attract your attention," says Mr.
Hinman of Ares Management. It's especially tempting given that a hedge
fund's manager typically gets to keep 20% of the fund's winnings each year.

(1)

The effect on the securitization market was electric. Armed with Li's formula, Wall Street's quants saw a new world of possibilities. And the first thing they did was start creating a huge number of brand-new triple-A securities. Using Li's copula approach meant that ratings agencies like Moody's—or anybody wanting to model the risk of a tranche—no longer needed to puzzle over the underlying securities. All they needed was that correlation number, and out would come a rating telling them how safe or risky the tranche was.

As a result, just about anything could be bundled and turned into a triple-A bond—corporate bonds, bank loans, mortgage-backed securities, whatever you liked. The consequent pools were often known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. You could tranche that pool and create a triple-A security even if none of the components were themselves triple-A. You could even take lower-rated tranches of other CDOs, put them in a pool, and tranche them—an instrument known as a CDO-squared, which at that point was so far removed from any actual underlying bond or loan or mortgage that no one really had a clue what it included. But it didn't matter. All you needed was Li's copula function.

(2)

And that is where the problem comes in. Because banks don't actually have to buy bonds it's easier to make money. Unfortunately there are problems with this setup:

First - The data used to set come up with the credit curves and the yield rates is just a snap shot in time. It doesn't reflect reality at any given moment.

Second - The GIGO problem. The predictions are only as good as the input data, and that is all guesswork. Li himself worried that many people didn't understand that.

Third - Everyone is using the same model so when someone makes a wrong guess the damage spills over.

"The corporate CDO world relied almost exclusively on this copula-based correlation model," says Darrell Duffie, a Stanford University finance professor who served on Moody's Academic Advisory Research Committee. The Gaussian copula soon became such a universally accepted part of the world's financial vocabulary that brokers started quoting prices for bond tranches based on their correlations. "Correlation trading has spread through the psyche of the financial markets like a highly infectious thought virus," wrote derivatives guru Janet Tavakoli in 2006.

(2)

These issues initially came to light in 2005 when GM's credit rating was downgraded

When a credit agency downgraded General Motors
Corp.'s debt in May, the auto maker's securities sank. But it wasn't
just holders of GM shares and bonds who felt the pain.

Like the proverbial flap of a butterfly's wings rippling into a tornado,
GM's woes caused hedge funds around the world to lose hundreds of
millions of dollars in other investments on behalf of wealthy
individuals, institutions like university endowments -- and, via pension
funds, regular folk.

(1)

But because the market bounced back many took that as a sign of how hedge funds and credit derivatives had made things more resilient. At the time however the Bank of International Settlements warned about future issues:

"The events of spring 2005 might not be a true
reflection of how these markets would function under stress," says the
annual report of the Bank for International Settlements, an organization
that coordinates central banks' efforts to ensure financial stability.
To Stanford's Mr. Duffie, "The question is, has the market adopted the
model wholesale in a way that has overreached its appropriate use? I
think it has."

(1)

Despite this and other warnings banks continued to use Li's model and then the mortgage crisis hit:

Li's copula function was used to price hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of CDOs filled with mortgages. And because the copula function used CDS prices to calculate correlation, it was forced to confine itself to looking at the period of time when those credit default swaps had been in existence: less than a decade, a period when house prices soared. Naturally, default correlations were very low in those years. But when the mortgage boom ended abruptly and home values started falling across the country, correlations soared.

Bankers securitizing mortgages knew that their models were highly sensitive to house-price appreciation. If it ever turned negative on a national scale, a lot of bonds that had been rated triple-A, or risk-free, by copula-powered computer models would blow up. But no one was willing to stop the creation of CDOs, and the big investment banks happily kept on building more, drawing their correlation data from a period when real estate only went up.

"Everyone was pinning their hopes on house prices continuing to rise," says Kai Gilkes of the credit research firm CreditSights, who spent 10 years working at ratings agencies. "When they stopped rising, pretty much everyone was caught on the wrong side, because the sensitivity to house prices was huge. And there was just no getting around it. Why didn't rating agencies build in some cushion for this sensitivity to a house-price-depreciation scenario? Because if they had, they would have never rated a single mortgage-backed CDO."

(2)

Because decision makers had come to rely almost unquestioningly on the output from Li's model and may have lacked the math skills to question it's results no one looked to see what the actual risk of the mortgage based securities were.

So now here we stand. The world's most dynamic economic engine brought to it's knees by one guy.

(1) Slice of Risk, Mark Whitehouse, Wall Street Journal, 9/12/2005
(2) Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street, Felix Salmon, Wired Magazine, 2/23/09

Joe Biden to be stimulus czar

So let me get this straight plagiarist and self proclaimed genius Joe Biden, a professor of constitutional law who has apparently never read the Constitution, has been selected to lead America's economy out of crisis.



I am not sure if it was his 3 years as a property manager or his time as a corporate lawyer bored by corporate law that qualified him for this position, but I am sure he will do a bang up job. And by that I mean we're f**cked.

Video found via This Ain't Hell

Montana Attacking The Interstate Commerce Clause Of The Constitution

Using a Made in Montana stamp and the Heller decision some Montana legislators have decided to go after the interstate commerce clause in the U.S. Constitution. Their plan is to force a confrontation with the ATF and take the case to the Supreme Court.

Personally I don't think their plan has much of a chance. Despite some rollbacks in the Rehnquist years the Supremes have been pretty friendly to the commerce clause since the 1930's. So assuming this law gets past the Montana Supreme Court, which is more liberal than most people realize, it will probably be struck down by the 9 wise guys in Washington.

source

Some Physical Proof Please

Today the Guardian has run an article revealing the full details of the torture practiced at Guantanamo Bay if by details you mean a bunch of allegations with no evidence presented to back them up:

Binyam Mohamed will return to Britain suffering from a huge range of injuries after being beaten by US guards right up to the point of his departure from Guantánamo Bay, according to the first detailed accounts of his treatment inside the camp.

Mohamed will arrive back tomorrow in the UK, where he was a British resident between 1984 and 2002. During medical examinations last week, doctors discovered injuries and ailments resulting from apparently brutal treatment in detention.

Mohamed was found to be suffering from bruising, organ damage, stomach complaints, malnutrition, sores to feet and hands, severe damage to ligaments as well as profound emotional and psychological problems which have been exacerbated by the refusal of Guantánamo's guards to give him counselling.

Mohamed's British lawyer, Clive Stafford Smith, said his client had been beaten "dozens" of times inside the notorious US camp in Cuba with the most recent abuse occurring during recent weeks. He said: "He has a list of physical ailments that cover two sheets of A4 paper. What Binyam has been through should have been left behind in the middle ages."

source

For an article entitled "Revealed: full horror of Gitmo inmate's beatings" this seems a little light on details. Let's see the Dr.s report. How old are the bruises? Are they consistent with other injuries? Was the prisoner on a hunger strike leading to the malnutrition? You know facts!

The rest of the article is a bunch of blather about Britain being complacent in torture by the ISI, what that has to do with Gitmo I don't know.

Glenn Greenwald Playing A Little Fast And Loose With The Truth

Found via Digg

Noted sockpuppet Glenn Greewald has an article up today basically accusing Glenn Beck, who I think is a turd, of fomenting rebellion via his show on Fox News. As part of his analysis he attempts to show that angry white males organize into militias whenever a Democrat is elected President, thereby associating all hate and partisanship with the political right:

Bill Clinton's election in 1992 gave rise to the American "militia movement": hordes of overwhelmingly white, middle-aged men from suburban and rural areas who convinced themselves they were defending the American way of life from the "liberals" and "leftists" running the country by dressing up in military costumes on weekends, wobbling around together with guns, and play-acting the role of patriot-warriors.

...

What was most remarkable about this allegedly "anti-government" movement was that -- with some isolated and principled exceptions -- it completely vanished upon the election of Republican George Bush, and it stayed invisible even as Bush presided over the most extreme and invasive expansion of federal government power in memory.

...

But now, only four weeks into the presidency of Barack Obama, they are back -- angrier and more chest-beating than ever. Actually, the mere threat of an Obama presidency was enough to revitalize them from their eight-year slumber, awaken them from their camouflaged, well-armed suburban caves.

There are some problems with Greenwald's assertions.

First - To my knowledge the militia movement has been disavowed by every serious conservative / Republican politician. Now I am sure that Greenwald with the resources of Salon behind him can find some state legislator who came out in full fledged support for the militias but they are isolated and no more representative of most conservatives thinking than people on the left calling for the assassination of George Bush are of most responsible Democrats.

Second - It appears that his contention is that the militia movement sprang to life fully formed, like Athena from Zeus's head, upon the election of Bill Clinton. in reality there had been a number of White Supremacist, Christian identity, States rights groups in existence for years. Many of them had paramilitary wings, one example is Posse Comitatus:

The militia movement is heir to the right-wing paramilitary tradition, but it is heir, too, to another tradition, the anti-government ideology of groups like the Posse Comitatus. The Posse developed an elaborate conspiratorial view of American history and government, one that claimed the legitimate government had been subverted by conspirators and replaced with an illegitimate, tyrannical government. Posse members believed that the people had the power and responsibility to "take back" the government, through force of arms if necessary. As a result, many Posse figures engaged in paramilitary training.

source

What actually drove the militia movement was the actions at Ruby Ridge and Waco:

More than any other issue, though, the deadly standoffs at Ruby Ridge, Idaho, in 1992 and Waco, Texas, in 1993 ignited widespread passion. To most Americans, these events were tragedies, but to the extreme right, they were examples of a government willing to stop at nothing to stamp out people who refused to conform. Right-wing folk singers like Carl Klang memorialized the children who died at Waco with songs like "Seventeen Little Children." These events provided new life to a number of extremist movements, from Christian Identity activists to sovereign citizens, but they also propelled the creation of an entirely new movement consisting of armed militia groups formed to prevent another Ruby Ridge or Waco.

Anger at the election of Bill Clinton may have contributed to the formation of these groups but it wasn't the driving force, and in fact some of the issues which the Southern Poverty Law Center identified as motivators - The Rodney King Riots, Fear of the formation of a socialist "New World Order" occured during the Presidency of the first President Bush.

Another misstatement of fact on Greenwald's part is that with the election of George W. Bush the militia movement died out. In fact (again according to the Southern Poverty Law Center) militia activity began it's decline in 1996 long before the 2000 election:

The number of militia groups declined after 1996, as did militia activity. Patterns of criminal activity, however, remained more or less constant: militia members continued to get themselves in trouble with the law on a regular basis. As the millennium wound to a close, federal agents arrested Florida militia leader Donald Beauregard, charging that he and others had plotted to destroy a nuclear power plant and other utilities as well as law enforcement offices (Beauregard eventually struck a plea deal). And in one of the only Y2K-related criminal acts in the United States, two San Joaquin County Militia members were arrested in Sacramento, California, on weapons charges; they had allegedly plotted to blow up a propane storage facility. More recently, in December 2000, Western Illinois Militia leader Dan Shoemaker received a four-year sentence on counts of aggravated intimidation, threatening a public official and unlawful use of weapons, following an incident in which he threatened law enforcement officers who tried to talk him out of plans to march through two Illinois towns carrying a rifle. Shoemaker had earlier promised to shoot anybody who tried to stop him. Other militia groups have made veiled threats related to current and future firearms legislation.

Finally - Show me where there has been an upsurge in militia activity. Glenn Beck flapping his jaws, stupid as it may be doesn't count. Show me some concrete proof. I haven't seen the show but I seriously doubt that Beck called for armed revolution. (I will watch it now even though I wasn't planning to and if Beck does in fact call for or seem to encourage revolution I will update this post and apologize)

But what the hell why let a few facts stand in the way of smearing everyone on the political right as an armed nut-job.

Update I went and watched the show on Fox News (Worst Case Scenario 1, 2 and 3), as I suspected they didn't say what Greenwald purports they said. No where was there advocacy of militias. What the show was about was a bunch of potential economic / political disaster type scenarios and wht the response to them would be.

Note Corrected a spelling error in the title.

Reality vs. Theory

Jerry Pournelle, a multiple PhD, and one of my favorite authors along with a lot of other people who are way smarter than I am think that the way out of the current economic crisis is tax and regulatory relief:

The economic forecasts are gloomy despite the hastily passed stimulus package; and we haven't seen what new regulations are hidden in the stimulus package. I doubt that anyone has read the entire bill even yet.

The best way out of this mess is the German Economic Miracle way: suspend regulations. All regulations. Make it easy to start new companies. Let ingenuity work to allocate capital. Of course we won't do that.

That's the theory and as near as I can tell it is at least as sound as the approach the US is taking.

Here is the reality:

These days, the Golden State leads the nation on economic and fiscal dysfunction, from the empty homes spread across the Central Valley to the highest state budget shortfall in the nation's history. Meanwhile, its political class pioneers denial in the face of catastrophe.

...

The budget adopted in a marathon session this week splits the baby, closing the deficit with spending cuts (hated by the left) and tax hikes (ditto the right), all the while largely failing to tackle the state's built-in structural defects.

...

Even discounting for the impact of global recession, the most populous state's ills are unique and self-inflicted -- and avoidable. In the last three decades, California expanded the public sector and regulation to Europe-like dimensions. Schools, state employees, health care, even dog kennels, benefited from largesse in flush times. Government workers got 16 official holidays, everyone else six. The state dabbled with universal health care and adopted strict environmental standards. In short, California went where our new president and Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco want America to go.

...

The parallels are also disquieting. The French have long experienced the unintended consequences of a large public sector. Ask them about it. As the number of people who get money from government grows, so does the power of constituencies dedicated to keep this honey dripping. Even when voters recognize the model carries drawbacks, such as subpar growth, high taxes, an uncompetitive business climate and above-average unemployment, their elected leaders find it near impossible to tweak the system. This has been the story of France for decades, and lately of California.

...

California is in a French-like bind: unable to afford a welfare-type state, and unable to overhaul it. "The people say they want all these programs, then there's nothing they want to pay for," says Hector De La Torre, a Democratic assemblyman. "The schizophrenia in the legislature reflects the peoples'."

source

The article above starts with:

As California goes, says an old cliché, so goes the nation. Oh my.

and we have already seen evidence of that; The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the stimulus package will decrease GDP over the next 10 years, labor and green constituencies are already flexing their muscle by inserting provisions such as "Buy American" and enhanced environmental provisions. We are less than a week into this stimulus and we are already well on the road to:

subpar growth, high taxes, an uncompetitive business climate and above-average unemployment, their elected leaders find it near impossible to tweak the system.

To make matters even better the U.S. is intending to follow in California's winning formula of higher taxes, increased services and decreased discretionary spending with President Obama's first budget.

Recipe for success!

Wow who woulda thunk - Gitmo complies with Geneva Conventions

A Pentagon review of conditions in the Guantanamo Bay military prison has concluded that the treatment of detainees meets the requirements of the Geneva Convention but that prisoners in the highest-security camps should be allowed more religious and social interaction with one another, according to a government official who has read the 85-page document.

The report, which was ordered by President Obama, was prepared by Adm. Patrick M. Walsh, the vice chief of naval operations, and has been delivered to the White House. Obama requested the review as part of an executive order on the planned closure of the prison at the Guantanamo Bay U.S. naval base on the southeastern tip of Cuba.

source

Of course anyone who has actually read the Geneva conventions already knew that.

Just for comparison here is the cell John McCain was held in as a POW and the cells at Gitmo.

Anonymous Philanthropist Donates 200 Human Kidneys To Hospital

Another blow to the idea of catastrophic global warming

The National Snow and Ice Data Center, which in May 2008 predicted the Arctic would be ice free during the 2008 melt season, underestimated the amount of Arctic ice by as much as 500,000 sq. Kilometers (That's 1.3 times the size of Montana, 1.2 times the size of California, or .78 times the size of Texas .

The reason? Sensor drift.

How was it discovered? Slashdot readers looked at the pictures and then emailed to ask why ares that were obviously covered in ice were being reported as ice free. Leading to the question who are you going to trust the sensors or your damn lying eyes?

source

This is the type of item I would normally e-mail out to a ton of other blogs, but since I never get an answer, except from Ace, I am just not going to bother any more.

Cuba Used to Have Mansions and a Relatively Decent Economy. Now They're Driving '54 Chevys

At 1:35 on this video.

Apparently traders aren't happy with the President's mortgage relief plan.

In other news Obama Waffles on NAFTA:

Obama: Economic Crisis May Delay NAFTA Negotiations

President Obama made a U.S.-led renegotiation of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) labor and environmental standards a central promise of his campaign. But asked today if he plans to start negotiations during his Thursday visit to Canada, Mr. Obama suggested that economic duress may postpone the NAFTA plans.

“There are a lot of sensitivities right now because of the huge decline in world trade,” Mr. Obama told the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

Upsetting at least one member of his base:

But even more upsetting is the broader ideology Obama seems to be espousing in his rationale for potentially delaying systemic trade renegotiations.

Though he reluctantly went on to say he thinks labor and environmental protections need to be put into NAFTA, the way he structured his comments - specifically, the way he juxtaposed economic growth against reformed trade - seems to subscribe to the discredited concept that making trade rules more fair somehow at odds with economic growth . Oddly, he's implying this at the very same time he has said worker rights (ie. The Employee Free Choice Act) and environmental protection (for example, investing in green jobs) are key to long-term economic growth here at home.

The reason for the dichotomy pointed out above is simple. Once he is out of the United States he has to deal with economists protecting their countries interests and the renegotiation that David Sirota desires doesn't benefit Canada or Mexico and the trade war that would result from the attempt will hurt the US.

I'm Not the Only One Who Thinks Obama is Winging It - Karl Rove Feels The Same Way

Earlier this week I said:

If that's the case why do all these plans fell like they were anally extracted on the spur of the moment. I have visions of President Obama wiping his ass and then reading the portents and signs like some Greek oracle after slaughtering a sheep, and it's not filling me with confidence.

Apparently I am not the only one who feels that way. Karl Rove has a piece in today's Wall Street Journal which reads in part:

Nevertheless, this fast start can't overcome a growing sense the administration is winging it on issues large and small.

...

Team Obama has been living off its campaign reputation for planning and execution. That reputation is now frayed, and all the bumbling and unforced errors will have an impact. Such things don't go unnoticed on Capitol Hill or in foreign capitals.

The president, a bright and skilled politician, has plenty of time to recover. The danger is that what we have seen is not an aberration, but the early indications of his governing style. Barack Obama won the job he craved, now he must demonstrate that he and his team are up to its requirements. The signs are worrisome. The world is a dangerous place. The days of winging it need to end.

Rove goes on to give a number of examples of areas where he has noticed problems including:

• Vetting of Cabinet Members
• The General Zini nomination
• Developing the economic stimulus package
• Selling the stimulus package to the American people. This is my personal favorite because Rove basically accuses the President of pulling figures out of the air
• The announcement of Sec. Geitner's bank rescue plan, which is part of what spurred my original post.
• Announcing the closure of Guantanamo Bay and ending enhanced interrogations without having alternative plans and policies ready.

A pretty substantial list for less than a month in office. I agree with Rove - This has to stop. I was not an Obama supporter and I disagree strongly with him on almost every policy he advocates, but if his administration fails it is bad for the country and that's not acceptable. Not being a failure in this case doesn't necessarily mean enacting all his policy goals, but showing that he has a hand on the tiller and a plan instead of flailing around like a drowning man trying to keep his head above water.

Take This For What It's Worth - Leader of Yemeni Mujahideen Claims al-Qaeda Has Nuke

I have no idea how reliable the Jamestown Foundation is, but William Casey was one of the founders so it should have some expertise.

In a recent interview posted to jihadi websites, al-Qaeda's leader in Yemen claims the organization possesses nuclear weapons and vows to attack U.S. and Western interests to compel them to withdraw their forces from the region

source

This tends to make me doubt his claims

The Amir adds that mujahideen attacks on U.S. interests have weakened the U.S. economy, as seen in the current world economic crisis. Finally, al-Wahayshi claims al-Qaeda possesses a nuclear weapon and only refrained from using it in the 9/11 attacks because those attacks were only al-Qaeda's "first message" to the Americans.

via Paranoid Polly in Ace's comments section.

Shades of Anbar September 2006 - US Troops Stalemated in Afghanistan

In September of 2006 Colonel Pete Devlin USMC wrote a report that declared Anbar Province in Iraq lost to the US and Iraqi central government.

Ten months later people were reporting a dramatic turnaround in the situation in Iraq generally and Anbar Province specifically, but still declared we were losing because our troops were "stalemated"

Since mid-2005, al Qaeda has aimed not to defeat the Coalition militarily, but to drain American public support politically.

...

But al Qaeda's largest harvest from "random slaughter" strategy was realized in America. Through acts of indiscriminate violence transmitted by the media, insurgents brought their war to America's living rooms. The atrocity-of-the-day is the principal informational input most Americans receive. This forms their knowledge base. The public does not live in the villages and mahalas of Iraq. Patterns of recovery, of normalcy, are not evident.

This is the essence of 4th Generation Warfare. And al Qaeda is clearly winning it.

Going along with the above are these statistics on news coverage of Iraq in 2006 / 2007. I have sat down and counted stories but I think we are beginning to see a similar trend regarding Afghanistan.

The MRC report, "The Iraq War on Cable TV," concluded the following:

- On Fox, pessimistic coverage outweighed optimistic coverage 3-to-2;

- On MSNBC, pessimistic coverage outweighed optimistic coverage 4-to-1; and

- On CNN, pessimistic coverage outweighed optimistic coverage 6-to-1.

From this, we can conservatively infer that at least 65% of coverage is pessimistic, compared to 35% (at most) optimistic. Stories of the daily car bombing do not have to be biased. They are inherently pessimistic.

The daily car bombing is the message the insurgents want.

Today people, especially pundits on the news networks have essentially declared the war in Iraq won. And in my opinion if things continue as the have been since January 2007 they are correct.

With that in mind forgive me if I am a little skeptical of this AP article in which Richard Holbrooke essentially says that we can't win in Afghanistan:

Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, said Wednesday that the foreign ministers of those countries will travel to Washington next week to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other officials as the U.S. formulates a policy review.

Appearing on "The NewsHour" on PBS, Holbrooke was asked how the Obama administration sees victory in Afghanistan. "First of all, the victory, as defined in purely military terms, is not achievable, and I cannot stress that too highly," he said. "What we're looking for is the definition of our vital national security interests."

If I am reading this correctly this is diplo-speak for "we need to find a way out of here as quickly as possible without looking like a bunch of cave dwelling religious fanatics who figure the fastest way to heaven is to kill one Jew or two Americans kicked our asses."

Fortunately General McKiernan, the US Commander seems to be made of a little sterner stuff. Although he admits his troops are currently stalemated he believes that the additional troops announce today will allow him to begin to break that stalemate.

Good on him.

It will be interesting to see what Afghanistan looks like in 10 months. Very interesting because my personal feeling is that Barack Obama doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to accept an increase in casualties if operations are stepped up.

Have We Become So Inurred To Sha'ria Based Depravity That This Story Barely Elicits Comment

I am not one of those people who reflexively hates all Muslims.

I have friends and acquaintances who are Muslim, I served in Turkey and loved the country and the people, and I have great respect for observant Muslims who are serious about their religion, (as I do for Orthodox Jews, Buddhist or Christian Monks, anyone who has the self discipline to dedicate them selves to that level observance), as long as they aren't so wrapped up in their religion that they forget the rest of us have rights. (yes I am looking at you all you Sha'ria desiring knucleheads)

That said I really have to wonder about the state of the Islamic faith when something like this happens:

Aasiya Hassan recently filed for divorce, authorities said. According to Buffalo News reports, she obtained an order of protection on Feb. 6, barring her husband from their home in Orchard Park.

Under sharia law followed by Muslims, a woman can ask for a divorce, but only a man can grant the request, and he can refuse, according to a book on sharia published last month, Cruel and Usual Punishment, by Egyptian-born American author Nonie Darwish.

Under Islamic law, crimes such as apostasy (leaving Islam), adultery, theft or drinking alcohol are punishable by beheading, stoning, amputation of limbs or flogging, the book says.

And almost no one mentions the fact that this is acceptable under Sha'ria Law, or the fact that men will claim that the wife committed adultery if she files for divorce as a scare tactic.

It isn't the fact that this guy killed his wife that I find disturbing, that happens with all too much frequency, it's the fact that he beheaded her and no one has thought the fact that he did was unusual. Have beheadings by Islamic terrorists just conditioned us to accept this as another facet of being Muslim?

What's almost as disturbing is the fact that there is a movement to implement Sha'ria in the U.S.

Again, something that could have been brought to my attention yesterday...!!! Rahm Emanuel is a thieving S.O.B.

White House Chief of Staff Rahm "I want 'em dead" Emanuel accepted free rent worth up to $100,000, in violation of House ethics rules, and possibly IRS regualtions. In addition he served on the board of Freddie Mac during the time frame in which it was illegally lying about it's earnings.

Most Ethical Administration Evah!!!!

NEWS broke last week that Rahm Emanuel, now White House chief of staff, lived rent- free for years in the home of Rep. Rosa De Lauro (D-Conn.) - and failed to disclose the gift, as congressional ethics rules mandate. But this is only the tip of Emanuel's previously undislosed ethics problems.

...

Nor is this all that seems to have been missed in the Obama team's vetting process. Consider: Emanuel served on the Freddie Mac board of directors during the time that the government-backed lender lied about its earnings, a leading contributor to the current economic meltdown.

The Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Agency later singled out the Freddie Mac board as contributing to the fraud in 2000 and 2001 for "failing in its duty to follow up on matters brought to its attention." In other words, board members ignored the red flags waving in their faces.

The SEC later fined Freddie $50 million for its deliberate fraud in 2000, 2001 and 2002.

Meanwhile, Emanuel was paid more than $260,000 for his Freddie "service." Plus, after he resigned from the board to run for Congress in 2002, the troubled agency's PAC gave his campaign $25,000 - its largest single gift to a House candidate.

source

Barack Obama Wafflehead Action Figure

I was inspired by this story in the LA Times and the comments in this post at Ace of Spades to create the Barack Obama Wafflehead Action Figure.

I hope it sells well.

As much as I have been criticizing the Obama administration there are still some good things happening...

Like new Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napalitano ordering a review of her departments programs.

WASHINGTON — The homeland security secretary, Janet Napolitano, is re-evaluating the largest federal program for testing the country’s ability to respond to terrorist attacks, one of several Bush administration initiatives she has ordered to come under review.

although I have to question this:

“She brings to the table real-world experience as a governor, as a person responsible for implementing these programs where the rubber hits the road,” said David Heyman, director of the domestic security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

I thought one of the lessons we learned from the Palin nomination is that Governors have absolutely no responsibilities or decision making abilities.

I'm so confused.

source

So How's That Global Warming Working Out? Most US Temperatures BELOW Normal Last 12 Months

Glenn Beck - We will have a depression and revolution

Since Geitner has done such a great job with the financial institutions let's put him in charge of the auto industry too!!!

Mr. Obama is designating the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, and the chairman of the National Economic Council, Lawrence H. Summers, to oversee a presidential panel on the auto industry. Mr. Geithner will also supervise the $17.4 billion in loan agreements already in place with G.M. and Chrysler, said the official, who insisted on anonymity.

source

Correct me if I am wrong, but between November 5th and January 20th weren't we constantly bombarded by the media about how Obama had his crack team of economic experts working on America's economic problems and they would have a plan ready to go on day 1.

If that's the case why do all these plans fell like they were anally extracted on the spur of the moment. I have visions of President Obama wiping his ass and then reading the portents and signs like some Greek oracle after slaughtering a sheep, and it's not filling me with confidence.

Warning Shot in the Coming Trade War?

BEIJING —

Measures in a $789 billion U.S. stimulus package that favor American goods are a "poison" that will hurt efforts solve the financial crisis, an editorial by China's official news agency said.

...

"History and economics have told us, facing a global financial crisis, trade protectionism is not a solution, but a poison to the solution," the editorial said.

...

Protectionism was a key concern of weekend meetings of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Rome. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner assured G-7 finance ministers on Saturday that the stimulus package would not violate the United States' commitment to free trade.

Xinhua's editorial said protectionist measures taken during the Great Depression of the 1930s caused trade wars, hurting international trade.

source

It's a sad day when the commies know more about free markets than the Congress and President of the United States.

You have to be kidding me

So after insisting that the Stimulus package needed to be passed Right... This... Very... Second... or the world as we know it would come to an end Obama isn't going to sign it until Tuesday now????

WTF???

Stimulus Bill Passes Senate - Buy American Provision Remains

Fuck we elect a bunch of imbeciles.

WASHINGTON - Congress approved protectionist measures in a $787 billion stimulus bill Friday that U.S. trading partners have warned could spark a trade war.

The bill, however, left the Obama administration some room to maneuver to appease other countries who say it will benefit U.S. companies unfairly.

Smoot / Hawley anyone?

h/t Gabriel Malor

Meanwhile back at the ranch (update):

ROME – The Group of Seven finance ministers pledged Saturday to avoid resorting to protectionism as they try to stimulate their own economies in the face of the world's worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

The meeting marked the international debut of U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who assured his counterparts that President Barack Obama's $787 billion plan to resuscitate the economy, approved Friday, would not violate in any way the United States' commitment to free trade.

King Abdullah Sacks Head Of Saudi Religous Police and Senior Judge

and in Saudi Arabia that means putting them in a sack and beating them like pinatas.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has sacked two powerful religious officials in a wide ranging shake-up of the cabinet and other government posts.

One of the dismissed men was the head of the controversial religious police force. The other was the country's most senior judge.

...

The sacked head judge, Sheikh Salih Ibn al-Luhaydan, caused controversy last September when he said it was permissible to kill the owners of satellite TV channels which broadcast immoral programmes.

Sheikh Salih Ibn al-Luhaydan said some "evil" entertainment programmes aired by the channels promoted debauchery.

Our correspondent says the sheikh may well be paying the price for airing his opinions.

source

Don't mess with the King's Pay Per View Porn.

Update: Some more in depth reaction:

The shake-up, the first major one since Abdullah came to power in August 2005, is significant because it dilutes the influence the hard-liners have had for decades on the religious establishment. The king, who has repeatedly spoken about the need for reform, has brought in a new group of officials and scholars who are younger and more in tune with the diversity of cultural Islam than their predecessors.

"They bring not only new blood, but also new ideas," said Jamal Khashoggi, editor of Al-Watan newspaper. "They are more moderate and many are also close to the reform agenda of the king, having worked closely with him."

...

The Saudi Press Agency said Abdullah has ordered the re-establishment of the Grand Ulama Commission — a religious scholars body — with 21 members from all branches of Sunni Islam. This is a major shift for the kingdom because it will give more moderate Sunni schools representation in a body that has always been governed by the strict Hanbali sect. No minority Shiites, however, have been appointed to the commission.

...

Another major change targets education. The king appointed Prince Faisal bin Abdullah, his son-in-law, as education minister. Khashoggi said Faisal has been working behind the scenes on plans to reform education. After the Sept. 11 attacks, carried out by 19 Arabs, including 15 Saudis, many in the U.S. blamed the Saudi educational system for helping create an atmosphere that justifies extremism.

source

I cross posted this over at Ace of Spades and BT in SA commented that this hasn't made the news in Saudi Arabia yet. I am wondering what the reaction will be.

John Boehner - Not One Member Has Read This

1000 Page 8 Inch Thick Stimulus Bill Passes House

Despite the fact that there was no possible way for the representatives to read it.

Some facts: President Obama wanted a 40% tax cut 60% spending split. The bill has a 23-77 split.

Obama wanted 75% of the spending to occur in the first 18 months less that 50% occurs by 2011.

The Congressional Budget Office predicts unemployment will peak at 9% in mid 2010 without the stimulus bill. 8% in mid 2010 with.

(my source was NPR on these numbers)

Meanwhile a lot of economists say that the bill won't actually stimulate economic activity:

WASHINGTON — The compromise economic stimulus plan agreed to by negotiators from the House of Representatives and the Senate is short on incentives to get consumers spending again and long on social goals that won't stimulate economic activity, according to a range of respected economists.

...

"It's unfocused. That is my problem. It is a lot of money for a lot of nickel-and- dime programs. I would have rather had a lot of money for (promoting purchase of) housing and autos . . . . Most of this plan is really, I think, aimed at stabilizing the situation and helping people get through the recession, rather than getting us out of the recession. They are actually providing less short-term stimulus by cutting back, from what I understand, some of the tax credits."

...

Another reason that some analysts frown on the stimulus is the social spending it includes on things such as the Head Start program for disadvantaged children and aid to NASA for climate-change research. Both may be worthy efforts, but they aren't aimed at delivering short-term boosts to economic activity.

...

Still, could this stimulus get the U.S. economy back on its feet?

By itself, probably not. The stimulus plan, however, is supposed to work in tandem with new efforts by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to rid banks of distressed assets that are poisoning their balance sheets, and with other federal efforts to halt mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. Much will depend on the details of both federal attack plans, which the Obama administration promises are coming soon.

There's also the problem of time. Much of the stimulus is to be spread over a two-year period or longer — and 2009 looks increasingly bleak.

source

That last part, the financial relief plan, may be problematic also. People don't believe the new Treasury secretary, Timothy Geitner, actually knows what he is doing.

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he renewed bets that U.S. stocks will drop as the government’s economic revival plan is a “disaster.”

...

Geithner is attempting to revive a U.S. banking system throttled by $756 billion in credit losses and an economy that lost almost 600,000 jobs last month. His new approach comes four months after the start of the $700 billion so-called TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which both Democrats and Republicans have criticized as ineffective.

“He caused the problem all last year,” Rogers said on Bloomberg Television. “He came up with TARP, and he came up with all these absurd bailouts. Mr. Geithner has never known what he is doing. He doesn’t know what he is doing now and pretty soon everybody is going to find out, including Mr. Obama.”

source

Lazy Day

Got up. Rode the bike for awhile then went down to Golden Gardens Park and watched people fly kites. Nice and relaxed.

Appalling But So Funny. Maxine Waters Questions Bank CEOs

To think that this complete fucking moron is one of the people who is in charge of this country.



It also shows why American school children are falling behind the rest of the world. She was a freaking teacher for Christ's sake.

This is the same woman who defended the actions of the LA Rioters in 1992 and accused the CIA of selling crack in South Central LA.

Oh, she also stated that there was no problem with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when there was an attempt by the Bush administration to increase regulation of those institutions.

Great!!! Senate getting ready to vote on final version of stimulus sight unseen

Hasn't been printed much less read but they are going to try and vote this evening.

Butthooks!!!!!!

What Does This Say About America

Forty-four percent (44%) voters also think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation’s problems than the current Congress, but 37% disagree. Twenty percent (20%) are undecided.

source

I think it say's 37% of Americans are retards.

No!!! No!!! A Thousand Times No!!! Washington Lawmaker Proposes 18.5% Tax on Porn To Support Drug Addicts

What is it with Washington state and their attempts to profit off my sins. First Gregoire wants to liquor me up to pump up the general fund. Now this doofus wants to charge more for wanking material to take care of all the drunken bums the Governor is creating.

The porn tax would apply to materials that show explicit sex -- magazines, photographs, motion pictures, video tapes, video discs, cable television, telephone services, audio tapes, computer programs and paraphenalia. The movies must be X-rated.

That's OK though I still have Powergirl.

Confidence In Policymakers Will Continue To Deteriorate As Their Ill-conceived Solutions Continue To Fail.

So say's Martin Wolf, chief economist of the Financial Times, who believes that the U.S. Banking system is insolvent and requires recapitalization.

Arguing today's toxic assets are "fundamentally worthless" - and there's lots more losses coming - Wolf says the lack of political will (or outright cowardice) to admit to reality means "we're really in trouble." Why? Because confidence in policymakers will continue to deteriorate as their ill-conceived solutions continue to fail.

Once policymakers (ultimately) agree insolvency is really the underlying problem, there are two options for dealing with the banks:

* Nationalize them, and then inject government capital as the U.K. government has started to do with RBS and Lloyds. (a.k.a. The Swedish Solution)
* Put them into FDIC receivership or force them into bankruptcy, whereby common stock and preferred debt shareholders get wiped out and "senior" debt holders end up owning the banks.

source

(There is video at the source that is worth watching)

If Wolf is right it would explain the shift in emphasis in the TARP program from buying up assets to recapitalization, but that would be an incomplete solution since they still haven't shed the bad debt.

Over 65 and Sick? Don't Count On Health Care Being Available

H.R. 1 EH (the economic stimulus bill) contains a number of health care provisions that are a little scary:

The bill’s health rules will affect “every individual in the United States” (445, 454, 479). Your medical treatments will be tracked electronically by a federal system.

...

But the bill goes further. One new bureaucracy, the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, will monitor treatments to make sure your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective. The goal is to reduce costs and “guide” your doctor’s decisions (442, 446). These provisions in the stimulus bill are virtually identical to what Daschle prescribed in his 2008 book, “Critical: What We Can Do About the Health-Care Crisis.” According to Daschle, doctors have to give up autonomy and “learn to operate less like solo practitioners.”

...

In his book, Daschle proposed an appointed body with vast powers to make the “tough” decisions elected politicians won’t make.

The stimulus bill does that, and calls it the Federal Coordinating Council for Comparative Effectiveness Research (190-192). The goal, Daschle’s book explained, is to slow the development and use of new medications and technologies because they are driving up costs. He praises Europeans for being more willing to accept “hopeless diagnoses” and “forgo experimental treatments,” and he chastises Americans for expecting too much from the health-care system.

...

Seniors should be more accepting of the conditions that come with age instead of treating them. That means the elderly will bear the brunt.

...

Medicare now pays for treatments deemed safe and effective. The stimulus bill would change that and apply a cost- effectiveness standard set by the Federal Council (464).

The Federal Council is modeled after a U.K. board discussed in Daschle’s book. This board approves or rejects treatments using a formula that divides the cost of the treatment by the number of years the patient is likely to benefit. Treatments for younger patients are more often approved than treatments for diseases that affect the elderly, such as osteoporosis.

source

The new hallmarks of the Obama administration Hope, Change, and Euthanasia?

Sustainable Energy Is Unsustainable... currently

One of the points that I always try and make when I am talking to people about alternative energy is that the infrastructure to support it doesn't exist. A point that I guess I was vaguely aware of but hadn't really thought about is that many of the green technologies rely on relatively rare elements that make them unsustainable.

That point is made in this NewScientist article:

Although scientists are agreed that we must cut carbon emissions from transport and electricity generation to prevent the globe's climate becoming hotter, and more unpredictable, the most advanced "renewable" technologies are too often based upon non-renewable resources, attendees heard.

-High Efficiency Multi-Junction Solar Cells require iridium which is also used in LCD manufacturing. There is an estimated 10 year supply at current usage levels.

-Hydrogen Fuel Cells require platinum. 15 year supply.

-Bio-fuels have multiple problems, including exhaustion of arable lands.

Quite the dilemma huh? Well not really, either we find new sources or develop new technologies but the point is that the TANSTAAFL principle applies even to "sustainable" energy.

via Slashdot

Is it just me or does Richard Branson look deranged in this picture

Dye his hair green and he could be the Joker.

Where the GOP senators stand on the "stimulus" bill

I abused my open blog privileges and also posted this over at Ace of Spades

Cassy Fiano endured the pain of calling every GOP senator to find out where they stand on the spendulus bill.

The complete list is at the link but here are some excerpts:

Firm No:
John McCain
Lindsay Graham
Mitch McConnell
Jeff Sessions

Squishy (apply pressure):
Michael Enzi — “leaning towards no”
Kay Bailey Hutchison — busy on both lines
Lamar Alexander — likely a “no” vote, but still possibly squishy
Saxby Chambliss — said he currently opposed it, but was “open to compromise”
George Voinovich — voted no in appropriations but is still open to voting for the bill

One of the best reasons to watch Fox News

Patti Ann Browne

Lesson from "The Lost Decade"

Remember the 1980's when everyone was convinced that Japan was on it's way to world domination through cheap stereos and manga comics? Books were written and movies made about our coming bleak future under the heel of our new Asian overlords (hopefully busty Asian overlords but that's a different matter) and all seemed lost. Then suddenly Japan was on the bottom of the economic pile.

The "Lost Decade" had begun.

Reading the description on wikipedia and from memory (I was stationed on Okinawa when the crash began) it was a burst real estate bubble very similar to the current situation in the United States that started the troubles and their responses were pretty similar to the stimulus package currently working it's way through congress. Today's NY Times looks at the lessons the Japanese learned the hard way.

Japan’s rural areas have been paved over and filled in with roads, dams and other big infrastructure projects, the legacy of trillions of dollars spent to lift the economy from a severe downturn caused by the bursting of a real estate bubble in the late 1980s. During those nearly two decades, Japan accumulated the largest public debt in the developed world — totaling 180 percent of its $5.5 trillion economy — while failing to generate a convincing recovery.

...

In a nutshell, Japan’s experience suggests that infrastructure spending, while a blunt instrument, can help revive a developed economy, say many economists and one very important American official: Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who was a young financial attaché in Japan during the collapse and subsequent doldrums. One lesson Mr. Geithner has said he took away from that experience is that spending must come in quick, massive doses, and be continued until recovery takes firm root.

Moreover, it matters what gets built: Japan spent too much on increasingly wasteful roads and bridges, and not enough in areas like education and social services, which studies show deliver more bang for the buck than infrastructure spending.

...

In the end, say economists, it was not public works but an expensive cleanup of the debt-ridden banking system, combined with growing exports to China and the United States, that brought a close to Japan’s Lost Decade. This has led many to conclude that spending did little more than sink Japan deeply into debt, leaving an enormous tax burden for future generations.

In the United States, it has also led to calls in Congress, particularly by Republicans, not to repeat the errors of Japan’s failed economic stimulus. They argue that it makes more sense to cut taxes, and let people decide how to spend their own money, than for the government to decide how to invest public funds. Japan put more emphasis on increased spending than tax cuts during its slump, but ultimately did reduce consumption taxes to encourage consumer spending as well.

Economists tend to divide into two camps on the question of Japan’s infrastructure spending: those, many of them Americans like Mr. Geithner, who think it did not go far enough; and those, many of them Japanese, who think it was a colossal waste.

I would say that the fact that Japaneses economists think their similar spending program was a "colossal waste" would be enough to convince our politicians that maybe we need to take a little more than two weeks to look at this plan consider the consequences. I would apparently be wrong.

Yesterday I saw something that fit this situation perfectly, I don't remember where or I would credit them. What's the major difference between this recessions and the Great Depression? In the 1930's FDR said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself", today President Obama is runnibgf around yelling, "Be Afraid! Be Very Afraid!"

Mark to Market is still in place?

Steve Forbes was just on Fox and Friends talking about the latest 598,000 jobs that were lost. Gretchen asked him what can be done to stop the economic hemorrhaging and he mentioned some targeted stimulus moves and dumping the mark to market rules. I was surprised because I thought that they were dumped back in October.

Apparently not.

This is preceded by the usual I am not an economist disclaimer, but I'm thinking maybe before cutting down every tree in America to print money for the piece o' crap stimulus bill currently winding it's way through congress we should try something that actually has a chance of working.

That's just me though.

Harry Reid looks like someone shit in his cheerios

Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, right, pulled out a page from the proposed stimulus package to illustrate issues in the bill that Republicans find objectionable, during a press briefing on Thursday with the majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada.

Apparently his hand is being forced on making cuts to the stimulus package and he isn't happy about it.

The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, said he believed that Democrats could muscle the stimulus bill through with at least two Republican votes. But late Thursday he said he would give the bipartisan group until Friday to reach a deal. If no deal is reached, he said he would call for procedural vote on Sunday aimed at moving to final vote.

The efforts of the bipartisan group, which at one point numbered about 20 senators, essentially tied Mr. Reid’s hands, giving him little choice but to allow time for a compromise measure to emerge. The behind-the-scenes brokering distracted from the Senate floor where formal debate continued and senators at times traded angry barbs.

source

It is good to see that Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is focused on the important issues in the debate however:

Moments later, Senator Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California, interrupted Mr. Graham saying she wanted to ask a question, but in fact she wanted to chastise him for waving around a copy of the bill. “Theatrical,” she exclaimed. “Did you do that when George Bush was president and he sent down a bill twice as big as that? Did you ever do that? You can do that. That’s theatrics. You can do that.”

I'm sure she'll keep the debate on track.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Has Pancreatic Cancer

Source

I expect a summer Supreme Court nomination.

The cancer is apparently early stage but pancreatic cancer has a pretty low survival rate, it is also painful. At least the two cases I remember working on when I was working the wards at Naval Hospital Millington were incredible amounts of pain and were doped up constantly. Pain management has progressed a lot since then, but I expect that Justice Ginsburg will require pretty extensive management.

When Bush Does It It's Unconstitutional - When Obama Does It It's Outreach

President Obama to create White House Office of Faith Based Initiatives.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama said Thursday he will establish a White House office of faith-based initiatives that will show no favoritism to any religious group and adhere to the strict separation of church and state.

Addressing the National Prayer Breakfast, Obama spoke of how faith has often been a divisive tool, responsible for war and prejudice. But, he said, "there is no religion whose central tenet is hate" and all religions teach people to love and care for one another. That is the common ground underlying his faith-based office, he said.

...

Obama planned to sign an executive order later in the day creating the White House Office on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships. It would expand and refocus the faith-based office founded by former President George W. Bush.

One of the central talking points of the left is that there can be no intermingling of religion and government so how exactly is this going to work?

Not a lot of time today but some interesting stuff

Rangel's ethics problems keep building. Now it turns out he has filed false disclosure forms for like the last 30 years.

The National Academy of Science is scheduled to release a report on criminal forensics that is supposed to be devastating to law enforcement.

George Soros explains his theory of the economic crisis, Charles davi at the Atlantic isn't impressed.

Best Craigslist Ad Ever

Real ad forwarded to me by Frank:

NINJA HAULER: 2005 Nissan Xterra - $12900 (Ronan / Lake County )
________________________________________
Reply to: sale-926508578@craigslist.org [?]
Date: 2008-11-19, 10:04PM MST
OK, let me start off by saying this Xterra is only available for purchase by the manliest of men (or women) . My friend, if it was possible for a vehicle to sprout chest hair and a five o'clock shadow, this Nissan would look like Tom Selleck . It is just that manly .

It was never intended to drive to the mall so you can pick up that adorable shirt at Abercrombie & Fitch that you had your eye on . It wasn't meant to transport you to yoga class or Linens & Things . No, that's what your Prius is for . If that's the kind of car you're looking for, then just do us all a favor and stop reading right now . I mean it . Just stop .

This car was engineered by 3rd degree ninja super-warriors in the highest mountains of Japan to serve the needs of the man that cheats death on a daily basis . They didn't even consider superfluous nancy boy amenities like navigation systems (real men don't get lost), heated leather seats (a real man doesn't let anything warm his butt), or On Star (real men don't even know what On Star is) .

No, this brute comes with the things us testosterone-fueled super action junkies need . It has a 265 HP engine to outrun the cops . It's got special blood/gore resistant upholstery . It even has a first-aid kit in the back . You know what the first aid kit has in it? A pint of whiskey, a stitch-your-own-wound kit and a hunk of leather to bite down on when you're operating on yourself . The Xterra also has an automatic transmission so if you're being chased by Libyan terrorists, you'll still be able to shoot your machine gun out the window and drive at the same time . It's saved my bacon more than once .

It has room for you and the four hotties you picked up on the way to the gym to blast your pecs and hammer your glutes . There's a tow hitch to pull your 50 caliber anti-Taliban, self cooling machine gun . I also just put in a new windshield to replace the one that got shot out by The Man .

My price on this bad boy is an incredibly low $12,900, but I'll entertain reasonable offers . And by reasonable, I mean don't walk up and tell me you'll give me $5,000 for it . That's liable to earn you a Burmese-roundhouse-sphincter-kick with a follow up three fingered eye-jab . Would it hurt? Hell yeah . Let's just say you won't be the prettiest guy at the Coldplay concert anymore .

There's only 69,000 miles on this four-wheeled hellcat from Planet Kickass . Trust me, it will outlive you and the offspring that will carry your name . It will live on as a monument to your machismo .

Now, go look in the mirror and tell me what you see . If it's a rugged, no holds barred, super brute he-man macho Chuck Norris stunt double, then contact me . I might be out hang-gliding or BASE jumping or just chilling with my ladies, but I'll get back to you . And when I do, we'll talk about a price over a nice glass of Schmidt while we listen to Johnny Cash .

To sweeten the deal a little, I'm throwing in this pair of MC Hammer pants for the man with rippling quads that can't fit into regular pants . Yeah, you heard me . FREE MC Hammer pants .

Rock on .

Who knew MC Hammer pants were such a draw.

Set Outrage Meters to High - Military Detention Camps in America

The latest internet fueled outrage is a supposed plan to allow the Department of Homeland Security to establish six detention centers in the US. Presumably these would be used to secure dissidents. Dissidents against what I'm not really sure since the groundwork was supposedly laid under President Bush and now continues under the Obama administration.

Becky who I usually find to be thoughtful and intelligent most of the time has spun herself into a tizzy (or at least I read her post as tizzy like in scope and duration) and her usual gang is busy agreeing with her. I can't take it anymore the constant outrage is actually starting to make my head hurt.

Anyway here is the text of the bill - I will let you my 1.75 lonely readers decide.

A BILL

To direct the Secretary of Homeland Security to establish national emergency centers on military installations.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the ‘National Emergency Centers Establishment Act’.

SEC. 2. ESTABLISHMENT OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY CENTERS.

(a) In General- In accordance with the requirements of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security shall establish not fewer than 6 national emergency centers on military installations.

(b) Purpose of National Emergency Centers- The purpose of a national emergency center shall be to use existing infrastructure--

(1) to provide temporary housing, medical, and humanitarian assistance to individuals and families dislocated due to an emergency or major disaster;

(2) to provide centralized locations for the purposes of training and ensuring the coordination of Federal, State, and local first responders;

(3) to provide centralized locations to improve the coordination of preparedness, response, and recovery efforts of government, private, and not-for-profit entities and faith-based organizations; and

(4) to meet other appropriate needs, as determined by the Secretary of Homeland Security.

SEC. 3. DESIGNATION OF MILITARY INSTALLATIONS AS NATIONAL EMERGENCY CENTERS.

(a) In General- Not later than 60 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense, shall designate not fewer than 6 military installations as sites for the establishment of national emergency centers.

(b) Minimum Requirements- A site designated as a national emergency center shall be--

(1) capable of meeting for an extended period of time the housing, health, transportation, education, public works, humanitarian and other transition needs of a large number of individuals affected by an emergency or major disaster;

(2) environmentally safe and shall not pose a health risk to individuals who may use the center;

(3) capable of being scaled up or down to accommodate major disaster preparedness and response drills, operations, and procedures;

(4) capable of housing existing permanent structures necessary to meet training and first responders coordination requirements during nondisaster periods;

(5) capable of hosting the infrastructure necessary to rapidly adjust to temporary housing, medical, and humanitarian assistance needs;

(6) required to consist of a complete operations command center, including 2 state-of-the art command and control centers that will comprise a 24/7 operations watch center as follows:

(A) one of the command and control centers shall be in full ready mode; and

(B) the other shall be used daily for training; and

(7) easily accessible at all times and be able to facilitate handicapped and medical facilities, including during an emergency or major disaster.

(c) Location of National Emergency Centers- There shall be established not fewer than one national emergency center in each of the following areas:

(1) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Regions I, II, and III.

(2) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Region IV.

(3) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Regions V and VII.

(4) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Region VI.

(5) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Regions VIII and X.

(6) The area consisting of Federal Emergency Management Agency Region IX.

(d) Preference for Designation of Closed Military Installations- Wherever possible, the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense, shall designate a closed military installation as a site for a national emergency center. If the Secretaries of Homeland Security and Defense jointly determine that there is not a sufficient number of closed military installations that meet the requirements of subsections (b) and (c), the Secretaries shall jointly designate portions of existing military installations other than closed military installations as national emergency centers.

(e) Transfer of Control of Closed Military Installations- If a closed military installation is designated as a national emergency center, not later than 180 days after the date of designation, the Secretary of Defense shall transfer to the Secretary of Homeland Security administrative jurisdiction over such closed military installation.

(f) Cooperative Agreement for Joint Use of Existing Military Installations- If an existing military installation other than a closed military installation is designated as a national emergency center, not later than 180 days after the date of designation, the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Secretary of Defense shall enter into a cooperative agreement to provide for the establishment of the national emergency center.

(g) Reports-

(1) PRELIMINARY REPORT- Not later than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting jointly with the Secretary of Defense, shall submit to Congress a report that contains for each designated site--

(A) an outline of the reasons why the site was selected;

(B) an outline of the need to construct, repair, or update any existing infrastructure at the site;

(C) an outline of the need to conduct any necessary environmental clean-up at the site;

(D) an outline of preliminary plans for the transfer of control of the site from the Secretary of Defense to the Secretary of Homeland Security, if necessary under subsection (e); and

(E) an outline of preliminary plans for entering into a cooperative agreement for the establishment of a national emergency center at the site, if necessary under subsection (f).

(2) UPDATE REPORT- Not later than 120 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting jointly with the Secretary of Defense, shall submit to Congress a report that contains for each designated site--

(A) an update on the information contained in the report as required by paragraph (1);

(B) an outline of the progress made toward the transfer of control of the site, if necessary under subsection (e);

(C) an outline of the progress made toward entering a cooperative agreement for the establishment of a national emergency center at the site, if necessary under subsection (f); and

(D) recommendations regarding any authorizations and appropriations that may be necessary to provide for the establishment of a national emergency center at the site.

(3) FINAL REPORT- Not later than 1 year after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting jointly with the Secretary of Defense, shall submit to Congress a report that contains for each designated site--

(A) finalized information detailing the transfer of control of the site, if necessary under subsection (e);

(B) the finalized cooperative agreement for the establishment of a national emergency center at the site, if necessary under subsection (f); and

(C) any additional information pertinent to the establishment of a national emergency center at the site.

(4) ADDITIONAL REPORTS- The Secretary of Homeland Security, acting jointly with the Secretary of Defense, may submit to Congress additional reports as necessary to provide updates on steps being taken to meet the requirements of this Act.

SEC. 4. LIMITATIONS ON STATUTORY CONSTRUCTION.

This Act does not affect--

(1) the authority of the Federal Government to provide emergency or major disaster assistance or to implement any disaster mitigation and response program, including any program authorized by the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (42 U.S.C. 5121 et seq.); or

(2) the authority of a State or local government to respond to an emergency.

SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.

There is authorized to be appropriated $180,000,000 for each of fiscal years 2009 and 2010 to carry out this Act. Such funds shall remain available until expended.

SEC. 6. DEFINITIONS.

In this Act, the following definitions apply:

(1) CLOSED MILITARY INSTALLATION- The term ‘closed military installation’ means a military installation, or portion thereof, approved for closure or realignment under the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990 (part A of title XXIX of Public Law 101-510; 10 U.S.C. 2687 note) that meet all, or 2 out of the 3 following requirements:

(A) Is located in close proximity to a transportation corridor.

(B) Is located in a State with a high level or threat of disaster related activities.

(C) Is located near a major metropolitan center.

(2) EMERGENCY- The term ‘emergency’ has the meaning given such term in section 102 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (42 U.S.C. 5122).

(3) MAJOR DISASTER- The term ‘major disaster’ has the meaning given such term in section 102 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (42 U.S.C. 5122).

(4) MILITARY INSTALLATION- The term ‘military installation’ has the meaning given such term in section 2910 of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990 (part A of title XXIX of Public Law 101-510; 10 U.S.C. 2687 note).