Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Iraqi Army moves into Sadr City - Expect the inevitable cries of "October Surprise"

In accordance with the cease fire recently inked by the Iraqi government and al-Sadr's Mehdi Army Iragi Army troops have begun moving into the cordoned area of Sadr City to restablish governement control and services. So far according to the New York Times the operation is going smoothly.

BAGHDAD — Iraqi forces rolled unopposed through the huge Shiite enclave of Sadr City on Tuesday, a dramatic turnaround from the bitter fighting that has plagued the Baghdad neighborhood for two months, and a qualified success for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.

As it did in the southern city of Basra last month, the Iraqi government advanced its goal of establishing sovereignty and curtailing the powers of the militias.

...

With the emergence of a political accord, the Iraqi military began to develop a new plan, which American officers learned about late last week. It assumed that Iraqi troops would be welcomed, or at least tolerated, by the residents. Instead of an assault through the roadside bombs, six battalions would drive in on parallel streets and set up checkpoints and search for weapons.

That plan was carried out on Tuesday and was uncontested.

So far, the Iraqi Army has been a winner. Iraqi commanders received, and sometimes rejected, advice from the American military. But in the end they were able to execute a plan that was very much their own.


Based on these developments here is my question - A month or so ago General Petraeus recommended that after the alst of the surge brigades is redeployed to the states in July there be a 45 day evaluation period before redeploying anymore troops. What if at the end of that period Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker say "Hey, things are going well. Lets pull out another (randomly chosen number here) two brigades.", and President Bush gets on the TV and announces the pullout. What happens then?

My guess is the press and the Dems play it up as unnecessarily putting our troops in danger is search of political gain, and denounce it as an October Surprise.

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