Monday, October 19, 2015

What I am reading 10/19/2015 - 5 minute edition

I literally only have 5 minutes today so here is the one article that grabbed my eye this morning -

The Economist - Official data say China’s economy is barely slowing. Are they believable?  -

Short answer - No.  I think everyone knows at this point that China is cooking the books.  The question is why did it take so long for this article to appear?
 Stripping out net exports, China’s nominal domestic-demand growth is probably closer to 5%, according to analysts with China International Capital Corp, a local investment bank. That is a sharper slowdown than the one portrayed by the government. But it is still a good deal better than the hard landing feared for China just a few months ago.
I am not an econometrician (bet you didn't know I knew that word did you) but I still think 5% is high.  Everything I read indicates a much broader slow down in their markets and huge difficulties developing a large consumer class.  Maybe I am wrong, but I think it is going to take another year or two to find out.

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