Poll shows Obama approval rating at 50%. Methods questioned

Back on Monday over at Ace of Spades Purple Avenger linked to some Zogby poll results that showed Obama's approval rating had dropped to 50%. A huge change! The dextrosphere rejoiced, although two prescient commenters at Ace's did offer the opinion that this poll was unreliable.

Two days later it turns out those commenters may have been right. According to NPR there is a huge dispute over how valid Zogby's sample selection technique was:

...it's not just the numbers that propelled pollsters into a serious chat room snit — though they represent a marked departure from other recent polls that consistently show the president with approval ratings hovering around 60 percent.

It's the Internet survey methods that pollster John Zogby used to gather the data that have research-centric Web sites and forums brimming with agita. Zogby's technique, critics say, turns the traditional polling practice of random survey on its head by drawing poll participants from visitors to his site who volunteer to be a member of his "online panel."

Zogby says he also recruits panel members during traditional phone call surveys and from purchased e-mail lists. And the pollster stoutly defends his method as ahead of the curve in its use of the Internet.

source

Seems like the critics have a valid point. This seems to be a situation rife with the potential for selection bias, and lets be honest there is a reason that ABC and the AP won't use his results.

Oh well it was a happy thought while it lasted.

Obama, Politics