So just when this seemed like a bad news day for McCain, along comes a pile of polls in key Battleground states from multiple firms showing McCain gaining in many places, winning in several and within reach –even the easy reach of a few points — in most of them.
Look, the real drama to this election is being provided not by the candidates but the polling community. By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.
I keep looking for the justification for this. Not easy to find. Rather like the academics' one-time belief in the Aristotlean spheres and an earth-centered universe, it just seems to be a pretty good working theory — some sort of way to make sense of observable phenomena and keep all the smart people talking agreeably and pleasantly among themselves.
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So the question is this? Did the Democrats make the mistake of fighting this election on the basis of a lesson learned in the last one? And then persuade everyone else this was the key to understanding the political universe? And by everyone, I mean the polling companies.
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Like I said yesterday. I think Obama is going to take it, but I don't think it will be the overwhelming blowout a lot of people are predicting. I also think that the Dems won't be able to take a 60 seat majority in the Senate. Of course I was completely wrong in my 2006 predictions so take it for what it's worth.
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