Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Hah! Jerry Pournelle agrees with me

The other day DrewM ran a a piece critical of McCain's battery challenge over at Ace of Spades. I responded:

Rush Limbaugh, Laura Ingraham et. al constantly harp on the fact that the ingenuity of the American people can solve any problem (something I agree with btw) and everyone agrees. John McCain comes along and says the same thing and it's a bad thing?

Government sponsors projects everyday that ends up with commercial applications. I can see the idea that a competition for a prize might inspire creativity. At least this way all the development work is done at private expense and the payoff only comes when someone has something that works.


as well as some additional remarks, which Aces new system have apparently eaten. The jist of which where that encouraging development of this battery thru the use of a prize is a good thing.

As usual I was roundly shouted down with one commenter remarking I was trying to earn points towards my free mexican.

Well at least Jerry Pournelle agrees with me:

...The purpose of prizes is to focus attention on a goal. Lindberg fly to Paris alone for a prize. Prizes did a lot for early aviation. The X Prize got a lot of attention for commercial space. Heinlein left much of his estate to be used for prizes in advance of commercial space. The only obligation the winner of a prize should have is to win it: prize money does n0t purchase the rights to the invention.

Now it is probably true that anyone who wins this McCain battery prize will make a great deal more money for that technology in the market place. Probably true: but the market is uncertain, and raising capital always has to compete with other places to invest. One of the problems we have always had with commercial space is that there are both technical and market risks, and those who understand the one kind of risk generally don't comprehend the other; so they invest elsewhere.

Prizes reduce market uncertainties by providing a floor. If the US were to offer a $1 billion prize for the first American company to fly a ship to orbit and bring it home 6 time in one year, we would probably have reusable space ships within five years, possibly sooner: a billion is a pretty good market incentive. And if the US were to offer $10 billion prize for the first American company to put 31 Americans on the surface of the Moon and keep them there alive and well for 3 years and a day, we would have a Lunar Colony within 7 years and probably sooner.

The neat thing about prizes is that we spend no money unless someone wins. Now surely it would be worth far more than $300 million to have any capitalist have the battery technology McCain describes. Indeed it would be worth far more, and the only real criticism of the McCain prize might be that it wasn't large enough. On the other hand, how does it harm us to have the $300 million offered? This is a very good move on McCain's part, and makes me a lot happier to support him than I was. It makes him something more than the lesser evil...


and since Jerry Pournelle is one of my favorite authors as well as a brilliant motherf**ker.

Pournelle was born in Shreveport, the seat of Caddo Parish in northwestern Louisiana, and educated in Capleville, Tennessee.[1] He served in the U.S. Army during the Korean War. After Korea, he obtained advanced degrees in psychology, statistics, engineering, and political science, including two PhDs. He acquired political experience by serving as Executive Assistant to the Mayor and Director of Research for the City of Los Angeles, campaign manager for Congressman Barry Goldwater, Jr. (Rep.), and campaign manager for the third (successful) campaign for Mayor Samuel William Yorty (Dem.).

Pournelle was an intellectual protege of Russell Kirk (Kenneth C. Cole, Pournelle's mentor at the University of Washington, was co-founder with Kirk of Modern Age) and Stefan T. Possony with whom Pournelle wrote numerous publications including The Strategy of Technology, onetime textbook at the United States Military Academy (West Point) and the United States Air Force Academy (Colorado Springs). His work in the aerospace industry includes editing Project 75, a 1964 study of 1975 defense requirements. He worked in operations research at Boeing, The Aerospace Corporation, and North American Rockwell Space Division, and was founding President of the Pepperdine Research Institute.


I would just like to say to everyone in that thread - SHOVE IT UP YOUR ASSES!

That is all.

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