Friday, September 28, 2007

The Iranian Freakout

This reads more like wishful thinking than hard analysis but the author does have a point. The Syrians have been awfully quiet on what happened since the Israeli attack:

Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil? The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, 'considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.' Syria now 'possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,' with 'more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,' some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria 'before being introduced into Russian operation service.' While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked. Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.


My personal thinking is Syria wanted to sanitize the site before inviting the world in to see all the damage that Israel caused to the peace loving Syrian civilian population, but it probably took longer than they thought and now they know they missed their chance so they are staying shut up.

Update - 10/6/2007 - Betsyspage has picked up on this article also, while ABC News (via instapundit)is saying it was definitely a Nuke site.

The September Israeli airstrike on a suspected nuclear site in Syria had been in the works for months, ABC News has learned, and was delayed only at the strong urging of the United States.

In early July the Israelis presented the United States with satellite imagery that they said showed a nuclear facility in Syria. They had additional evidence that they said showed that some of the technology was supplied by North Korea.

One U.S. official told ABC's Martha Raddatz the material was "jaw dropping" because it raised questions as to why U.S. intelligence had not previously picked up on the facility.


Just a thought here but it might be because or intelligence and diplomatic communities are to busy waging war against the administration to engage in protecting national security. I would bet that this is a big reason the North Koreans suddenly decided to let the US supervise dismantling their nuclear facilities.

Hot Air and Powerline have more

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