Al-Sadr running to Iran?

Late last month the L.A. Times reported on the newly conciliatory tone that Moqtada Al-Sadr had adopted towards the US and the sitting Iraqi government:

BAGHDAD — Muqtada Sadr, the radical anti-American cleric, has backed away from confrontation with U.S. and Iraqi forces in recent weeks, a move that has surprised U.S. officials who long have characterized his followers as among the greatest threats to Iraq's security.

Thursday, a leader of the Sadr movement in one of its Baghdad strongholds publicly endorsed President Bush's new Iraq security plan, which at least some U.S. officials have touted as a way to combat Sadr's group.

"We will fully cooperate with the government to make the plan successful," said Abdul-Hussein Kaabai, head of the local council in the Shiite Muslim-dominated Sadr City neighborhood. "If it is an Iraqi plan done by the government, we will cooperate."

Some were speculating that this newly cooperative attitude was a response to President Bush's anticipated troop surge, others that the political realities of exercising power were beginning to take hold. Still others have suggest that internal struggles in his movement were causing him to adjust his stance in response.

Others suggest the cleric has been mellowed by the realities of exercising power. The Sadr movement controls several government ministries, including Health and Transportation.

Control of those bureaucracies has given Sadr substantial patronage and resources and made him one of the country's most influential men. But being part of a government characterized by inefficiency, corruption and brutality has also made him answerable for its many sins and undercut his popularity, Iraqi officials close to him said.

"If the electricity is cut, people come to Muqtada to complain," said Ali Yasseri, a former editor of Al Hawza, a pro-Sadr newspaper.

...

"The people who he depended on to run the institutions performed very badly," said Yasseri, the former editor. "We thought we were going to give Iraqis their rights back and eliminate corruption and nepotism. Unfortunately, corruption and nepotism have become part of the Sadr movement."

Some Sadr supporters have begun turning against the movement.

This article from ABC News suggests it may be a combination of events:

Feb. 13, 2007 — While members of the U.S. House of Representatives take turns weighing in on President Bush's planned troop surge in Iraq, the focus in Iraq is not on the arrival of more U.S. troops, but the departure of one of the country's most powerful men, Moqtada al Sadr and members of his army.

According to senior military officials, al Sadr left Baghdad two to three weeks ago and fled to Tehran, Iran, where he has family.

...

In recent months, al Sadr has come to the political table to force change rather than use military force to have an impact. Sources say an even more extreme faction within his militia isn't pleased with this turn of events and is trying to force the cleric to respond to recent Sunni attacks with more violence.

So it appears that a combination of internal dissent and external pressure may have caused Al-Sadr to flee. If that is the case we can probably expect a strong resistance from some members of his Mahdi army, but we may find pacifying Shia neighborhoods easier than expected.

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