Bush Adviser’s Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader
WASHINGTON, Nov. 28 — A classified memorandum by President Bush’s national security adviser expressed serious doubts about whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki had the capacity to control the sectarian violence in Iraq and recommended that the United States take new steps to strengthen the Iraqi leader’s position.
Do you think that maybe, just maybe, that's obvious by the fact that if the reporting is accurate sectarian violence has been increasing for months.
I say if the reporting is accurate because a number of questions are being raised about some of the sourcing of stories about Iraqi on Iraqi violence.
Further:
[...]the memo questions whether Mr. Maliki has the will and ability to establish a genuine unity government, saying the answer will emerge from actions he takes in the weeks and months ahead. [...]
[...]In describing the Oct. 30 meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki, it says: “Maliki reiterated a vision of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish partnership, and in my one-on-one meeting with him, he impressed me as a leader who wanted to be strong but was having difficulty figuring out how to do so.” It said the Iraqi leader’s assurances seemed to have been contradicted by developments on the ground, including the Iraqi government’s approach to the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia known in Arabic as Jaish al-Mahdi and headed by Moktada al-Sadr.[...]
[...]“Reports of nondelivery of services to Sunni areas, intervention by the prime minister’s office to stop military action against Shia targets and to encourage them against Sunni ones, removal of Iraq’s most effective commanders on a sectarian basis and efforts to ensure Shia majorities in all ministries — when combined with the escalation of Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) killings — all suggest a campaign to consolidate Shia power in Baghdad.”
In other words Malaki is saying one thing in English and saying and doing another in Arabic. Which I think became obvious when he pledged to secure the capital and then ordered US Troops to remove roadblocks aimed at isolating Sunni militias.
The memo goes on to address some steps that can be taken to improve the situation:
- Pressing Saudi Arabia for a more active leadership role in exchange for a more active US role in the Israeli/Palestinian Peace Process.
- Increasing the number of troops in Baghdad - specifically pressing Iraq to honor the troop commitment it made.
The memo refers to “the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad,” a seeming acknowledgment that there is a substantial shortfall of troops in the Iraqi capital compared with the level needed to provide security there, in part because the Iraqi government has not dispatched all the forces it has promised. An American brigade generally numbers about 3,500 troops, though Iraqi units can be smaller. While Democrats have advocated beginning troop withdrawals as a means of putting pressure on Mr. Maliki, the memo suggests that such tactics may backfire by stirring up opposition against a politically vulnerable leader.
“Pushing Maliki to take these steps without augmenting his capabilities could force him to failure — if the Parliament removes him from office with a majority vote or if action against the Mahdi militia (JAM) causes elements of the Iraqi Security Forces to fracture and leads to major Shia disturbances in southern Iraq,” the memo says.
The memo lists a number of possible steps to build up Mr. Maliki’s capability. They include asking Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander, to develop a plan to strengthen the Iraqi leader.
- Asking the Pentagon for a review of force levels and make a recommendation about whether more are needed.
Personally I would order the US forces to begin operations against Shia militias and against any Iraqi forces that stand with the militias or interfere with our operations.
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